Is Environment the REAL Cause of Upcoming Wars in South Asia?

Northern slope of Himalaya - Source: Zhangwei Ding (distributed via imaggeo.egu.eu)

South Asia, home to nearly a quarter of the world’s population, is standing on a precarious edge—where the melting glaciers of the Himalayas, drying rivers, and rising temperatures are not just environmental crises but the sparks of future conflicts. As climate science becomes clearer and the region’s water supply grows increasingly scarce, a worrying truth emerges: environmental degradation is not just a backdrop but a potential driver of war in this region.

This isn’t distant-future speculation—it’s a live, evolving threat.

A Warming Planet: Science, Facts, and Consequences

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that global warming is defined as the rise in global surface air and sea temperatures, averaged over 30 years. Relative to pre-industrial levels (1850–1900), human-induced warming reached approximately 0.87°C by 2006–2015. Today, we’re staring at a projected rise of 2 to 3°C by the end of this century.

What’s more alarming is the regional disparity. 20–40% of the world’s population—a large chunk of which resides in South Asia—already live in regions that experienced seasonal warming beyond 1.5°C by 2015. And unlike oceans, which warm more slowly, land regions are heating up faster, turning cities and rural belts into pressure cookers of climate stress.

By 2030, instead of reducing emissions to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, the world is on track to increase greenhouse gas emissions by 14%, despite this being labeled the Decade of Action.

The result? A surge in extreme weather events. In 2019 alone, 13 million people were displaced globally due to floods, storms, and droughts. Between 2010 and 2020, vulnerable countries—many in South Asia—experienced 15 times more climate-related deaths compared to less vulnerable nations.

The Climate-Conflict Nexus in South Asia

While global headlines often focus on direct military flashpoints, many conflicts have an invisible accelerant: environmental stress. Nowhere is this more obvious than in South Asia, where water, geography, and geopolitics collide.

1. Melting Himalayas and Vanishing Glaciers

The Himalayas, often dubbed the “Third Pole,” store the largest volume of ice outside the polar regions. These glaciers feed 10 major river systems, serving 2 billion people across countries like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and China.

However, studies indicate that by 2100, 36% of Himalayan glaciers will be lost—even if we manage to limit warming to 1.5°C. This will drastically alter the flow of rivers like the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra, leading to seasonal water shortages, erratic floods, and eventually, mass displacement.

The Indus River, for instance, is a lifeline for Pakistan, yet its headwaters lie in Indian-administered Kashmir—making water access a politically volatile issue. The Indus Waters Treaty (1960) has held despite wars, but with climate change altering river volumes, the treaty’s future is uncertain.

2. India–Pakistan: A Watery Powder Keg

Water-sharing has long been a tense point between India and Pakistan. The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank, allocated the three western rivers to Pakistan and the eastern rivers to India. But as glacier-fed sources shrink and seasonal variations grow, disputes over dams and hydroelectric projects have sharpened. Pakistan accuses India of restricting flows via upstream dams; India accuses Pakistan of weaponizing water diplomacy. Climate change has turned this delicate balance into a looming conflict trigger.

3. India–China: Rivers as Strategic Assets

China controls the Tibetan Plateau, the source of major rivers like the Brahmaputra (Yarlung Tsangpo). With Beijing pushing dam construction on its side of the border, India fears reduced flows and unilateral water management. Tensions escalated when China refused to share hydrological data after the 2017 Doklam standoff. In times of drought, the lack of data could be catastrophic for northeastern India and Bangladesh. The Brahmaputra’s altered flow can drown or starve millions, depending on the season.

4. Internal Conflicts and Climate Migration

Environmental degradation is not just triggering interstate tensions—it’s fracturing societies from within. In 2019, extreme weather displaced 5 million people in India alone.

In Bangladesh, rising sea levels may inundate 17% of the country by 2050, pushing 18 million people to flee their homes. Where will they go? Internal migration will spike urban pressure, while cross-border migration into India may escalate communal and political tensions.

Meanwhile, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and even the Maldives face acute freshwater challenges. If environmental shocks keep increasing, resource scarcity will test the social fabric of fragile nations, and in some cases, it may snap. 

"Abdication of Leadership is Criminal"

As UN Secretary-General António Guterres recently said, the ongoing global inaction is not just a policy failure—it’s criminal. Developed nations, while historically responsible for the bulk of emissions, have fallen short on promises to aid vulnerable regions like South Asia. The $100 billion climate finance commitment remains unmet.

The burden now falls on regional cooperation. But that’s easier said than done in a neighborhood marred by border disputes, nationalism, and zero-sum politics.

So, Are Environmental Wars Coming?

Not necessarily in the form of tanks and missiles—but yes, the environment is becoming a central character in shaping future conflicts in South Asia. As resources dwindle and populations grow, the competition for water, food, and land could lead to more friction—within and across borders. 

The science is clear. The Himalayas are melting. The rivers are drying. The weather is turning hostile. And the people are on the move. 

Yet, the world—and especially regional powers—are not acting fast enough. Ignoring the environmental roots of conflict is not just naive; it’s dangerous.

Conclusion: Environmental Peace is Regional Peace

To avoid a future of climate-driven wars, South Asian countries must recognize that environmental cooperation is national security. Shared river basins require transparent governance, real-time data sharing, and joint infrastructure planning. Climate resilience must be embedded in diplomacy.

We can no longer afford to treat the environment as a separate issue from peace and conflict. The two are now deeply intertwined. The sooner we accept this, the better chance we have at defusing the bombs the planet is quietly planting beneath our feet.